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War Detector Index

Global escalation risk

A 0–100 estimate of the risk that current conflicts escalate into a global war. It is an indicator, not a probability.

78.3

Critical

44 countries at war

No 24-hour history yet

What drives the index right now

Nuclear powers at war: Pakistan, Israel, United States, India, Russia
Military alliance members at war: United States, Russia
Conflicts on 6 continents

How the index is calculated →

Updated 13 minutes ago

Conflicts: UCDP data through 9/30/26

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Active conflicts99

Russia × Ukraine
Russia · Ukraine
85
Risk
12,825 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iran × Israel and United States
Iran · Israel · United States
67
Risk
94 deaths in 90 days · stable
Pakistan: Government
Pakistan
56
Risk
1,042 deaths in 90 days · stable
Pakistan: Balochistan
Pakistan
54
Risk
724 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iraq × Israel and United States
Iraq · Israel · United States
52
Risk
3 deaths in 90 days · stable
Israel: Palestine
Israel
52
Risk
404 deaths in 90 days · stable
Yemen: Government
Yemen
51
Risk
4,622 deaths in 90 days · stable
Afghanistan × Pakistan
Afghanistan · Pakistan
51
Risk
26 deaths in 90 days · stable
Israel: Southern Lebanon
Israel
49
Risk
86 deaths in 90 days · stable
Nigeria × Forces of Bello Turji
Nigeria
42
Risk
669 deaths in 90 days · stable
Somalia: Government
Somalia
41
Risk
619 deaths in 90 days · stable
Sudan: Government
Sudan
41
Risk
538 deaths in 90 days · stable
Ethiopia: Government
Ethiopia
41
Risk
540 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iran × Israel
Iran · Israel
40
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Mali: Government
Mali
39
Risk
356 deaths in 90 days · stable
Ethiopia: Government/Amhara
Ethiopia
39
Risk
343 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Pakistan
Pakistan
38
Risk
26 deaths in 90 days · stable
Nigeria: Islamic State
Nigeria
38
Risk
297 deaths in 90 days · stable
Burkina Faso: Government
Burkina Faso
38
Risk
280 deaths in 90 days · stable
Afghanistan: Islamic State
Afghanistan
37
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Myanmar: Government
Myanmar
37
Risk
230 deaths in 90 days · stable
Pakistan: Islamic State
Pakistan
36
Risk
17 deaths in 90 days · stable
DR Congo: Government
DR Congo
36
Risk
187 deaths in 90 days · stable
Israel × Syria
Israel · Syria
35
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Mali: Government/Azawad
Mali
34
Risk
137 deaths in 90 days · stable
Niger: Islamic State
Niger
34
Risk
138 deaths in 90 days · stable
Myanmar: Arakan
Myanmar
34
Risk
129 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: United States
United States
33
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
Afghanistan: Government
Afghanistan
33
Risk
106 deaths in 90 days · stable
India: Kashmir
India
32
Risk
7 deaths in 90 days · stable
Ethiopia: Oromiya
Ethiopia
32
Risk
89 deaths in 90 days · stable
India: Nagaland
India
30
Risk
4 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Syria
Syria
30
Risk
60 deaths in 90 days · stable
Mozambique: Islamic State
Mozambique
30
Risk
56 deaths in 90 days · stable
Colombia: Government
Colombia
30
Risk
53 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iran: Government
Iran
29
Risk
44 deaths in 90 days · stable
Colombia × EGC
Colombia
28
Risk
41 deaths in 90 days · stable
Cameroon: Ambazonia
Cameroon
28
Risk
37 deaths in 90 days · stable
India × Bhatti network
India
28
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
India: Government
India
28
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
India: Manipur
India
28
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
Russia: Government
Russia
28
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Israel: Islamic State
Israel
28
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Burkina Faso: Islamic State
Burkina Faso
27
Risk
33 deaths in 90 days · stable
Nigeria: Government
Nigeria
27
Risk
29 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iran: Kurdistan
Iran
27
Risk
9 deaths in 90 days · stable
Indonesia: West Papua
Indonesia
26
Risk
23 deaths in 90 days · stable
Haiti: Government
Haiti
25
Risk
22 deaths in 90 days · stable
Mali: Islamic State
Mali
25
Risk
20 deaths in 90 days · stable
Philippines: Islamic State
Philippines
25
Risk
20 deaths in 90 days · stable
Cameroon: Government
Cameroon
24
Risk
16 deaths in 90 days · stable
Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast
Kenya
24
Risk
16 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: South Sudan
South Sudan
24
Risk
16 deaths in 90 days · stable
DR Congo: Katanga
DR Congo
24
Risk
15 deaths in 90 days · stable
Thailand: Patani
Thailand
24
Risk
15 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iraq: Government
Iraq
23
Risk
12 deaths in 90 days · stable
Bangladesh × Myanmar
Bangladesh · Myanmar
22
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
DR Congo × Rwanda
DR Congo · Rwanda
22
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Burundi × DR Congo
Burundi · DR Congo
22
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Pakistan: Sindh
Pakistan
22
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Haiti × Kokorat sans ras
Haiti
22
Risk
11 deaths in 90 days · stable
Philippines: Government
Philippines
22
Risk
11 deaths in 90 days · stable
DR Congo: Islamic State
DR Congo
22
Risk
10 deaths in 90 days · stable
Central African Republic × LRA
Central African Republic
21
Risk
9 deaths in 90 days · stable
Iran × Xebat
Iran
21
Risk
9 deaths in 90 days · stable
Mexico × Sinaloa Cartel
Mexico
21
Risk
9 deaths in 90 days · stable
Cameroon: Islamic State
Cameroon
21
Risk
8 deaths in 90 days · stable
Nigeria: Biafra
Nigeria
21
Risk
8 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: South Africa
South Africa
21
Risk
8 deaths in 90 days · stable
Benin: Government
Benin
20
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Central African Republic: Government
Central African Republic
20
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Ethiopia: Benishangul-Gumuz
Ethiopia
20
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Libya
Libya
20
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Niger
Niger
20
Risk
6 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Myanmar
Myanmar
19
Risk
5 deaths in 90 days · stable
Syria: Islamic State
Syria
19
Risk
5 deaths in 90 days · stable
Syria: Suweida
Syria
18
Risk
4 deaths in 90 days · stable
Niger: Government
Niger
17
Risk
3 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Somalia
Somalia
17
Risk
3 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Turkey
Turkey
17
Risk
3 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Ethiopia
Ethiopia
15
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
South Sudan: Government
South Sudan
15
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Yemen
Yemen
15
Risk
2 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Brazil
Brazil
13
Risk
1 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Indonesia
Indonesia
13
Risk
1 deaths in 90 days · stable
Papua New Guinea: Bougainville
Papua New Guinea
13
Risk
1 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Philippines
Philippines
13
Risk
1 deaths in 90 days · stable
Turkey: Islamic State
Turkey
13
Risk
1 deaths in 90 days · stable
Bangladesh: Chittagong Hill Tracts
Bangladesh
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Burundi × Supporters of CNL
Burundi
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Cameroon
Cameroon
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: DR Congo
DR Congo
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Ethiopia: Agew
Ethiopia
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Ghana
Ghana
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Kenya
Kenya
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
Morocco
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Somalia: Islamic State
Somalia
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Armed conflict: Ukraine
Ukraine
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable
Venezuela × ELN
Venezuela
10
Risk
0 deaths in 90 days · stable

The War Detector Index is a statistical estimate built from public data. It is not a forecast or a real probability of a world war.

Sources: UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, CC BY 4.0), The GDELT Project and Natural Earth.